| TYPE | RADIO BLACKOUT | SOLAR STORM | GEO STORM |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCALE | 1-2: 25%, 3-5: 75% | 5% | 0 |
| TEXT | None | S1 or < | none |
| TYPE | RADIO BLACKOUT | SOLAR STORM | GEO STORM |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCALE | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TEXT | minor | none | none |
| TYPE | RADIO BLACKOUT | SOLAR STORM | GEO STORM |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCALE | 1-2: 25%, 3-5: 25% | 5% | 0 |
| TEXT | None | S1 or < | none |
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 01-Feb 03 2026 is 1.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 01-Feb 03 2026
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03
00-03UT 0.33 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 0.67 1.33 1.33
06-09UT 1.67 1.00 1.00
09-12UT 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-15UT 1.33 0.67 0.67
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 1.33 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 1.33 1.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2026
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03
S1 or greater 5% 5% 10%
Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater probabilities begin to increase on 03
Feb as Region 4366 rotates into a more favorable location for
connection.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 01 2026 1212 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 01-Feb 03 2026
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flares,
with a slight chance for an isolated X-class event (R3 or greater), will
persist through 03 Feb given the evolution and history of Region 4366.
Updated last 2026/02/01 21:15 UTC
-------------------
Product ID: XM5S
Issued: 2026-02-01 16:29:40.310
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 306
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 1629 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 01 1557 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Feb 01 1605 UTC
End Time: 2026 Feb 01 1616 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.1
Location: N17E40
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
-------------------
Product ID: XM5A
Issued: 2026-02-01 16:08:28.583
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 512
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 1608 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Feb 01 1608 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.
-------------------
Product ID: XM5S
Issued: 2026-02-01 13:13:49.787
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 305
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 1313 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 01 1245 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Feb 01 1250 UTC
End Time: 2026 Feb 01 1304 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.8
Location: N16E36
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Comment: Additional flaring from Region 4366. No radio sweeps reported by USAF observatories indicating a CME at this time.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
-------------------
Product ID: XM5A
Issued: 2026-02-01 12:55:00.530
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 511
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 1255 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Feb 01 1248 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.
-------------------
Product ID: XX0S
Issued: 2026-02-01 12:53:26.107
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 206
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 1253 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 01 1152 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Feb 01 1233 UTC
End Time: 2026 Feb 01 1238 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.0
Location: N16E37
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Comment: Double peak flare with M6.7 and X1.0 peaks.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.
-------------------
Product ID: XM5A
Issued: 2026-02-01 12:12:12.810
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 510
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 1212 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Feb 01 1209 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.
-------------------
Product ID: XM5S
Issued: 2026-02-01 10:18:10.630
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 304
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 1018 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 01 0953 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Feb 01 1002 UTC
End Time: 2026 Feb 01 1006 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.6
Location: N16E39
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Comment: Flare originated from AR 4366 and appears to be impulsive in nature at this time.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
-------------------
Product ID: XM5A
Issued: 2026-02-01 10:05:42.047
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 509
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 1005 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Feb 01 1001 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.
-------------------
Product ID: EF3A
Issued: 2026-02-01 04:59:46.860
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3617
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 01 0459 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3616
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 21 0950 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 11100 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
-------------------
Product ID: EF3A
Issued: 2026-01-31 05:03:52.860
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3616
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 31 0503 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3615
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 21 0950 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 9214 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
-------------------
Product ID: EF3A
Issued: 2026-01-30 04:59:41.653
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3615
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 30 0459 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3614
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 21 0950 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8017 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Current 2026 Feb 01 1215 UTC
Solar-terrestrial indices for 31 January follow.
Solar flux 141 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 01 February was 1.00.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.
Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #26-4
2026 January 25 at 6:50 p.m. MST (2026 January 26 0150 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For January 19-25
-G4 storming was observed on 19-20 Jan, G3 storming was observed on 20-21 Jan, G2 storming was observed on 21 Jan, and G1 storming was observed on 22 Jan following the arrival of the halo CME from18 Jan.
-S4 levels were observed on19 Jan, S2 levels were observed on 20 Jan, and S1 levels were observed on 21-22 Jan.
-R1 events were observed on19 and 21 Jan.
Outlook For January 26-February 1
-Periods of G1 storming are likely on 28 Jan due to CH HSS influences.