| TYPE | RADIO BLACKOUT | SOLAR STORM | GEOMAGNETIC STORM |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCALE | R1-R2: 15% R3-R5: 55% | 75% | 0 |
| TEXT | None | S1 or < | moderate |
| TYPE | RADIO BLACKOUT | SOLAR STORM | GEOMAGNETIC STORM |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCALE | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| TEXT | none | minor | none |
| TYPE | RADIO BLACKOUT | SOLAR STORM | GEOMAGNETIC STORM |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCALE | R1-R2: 10% R3-R5: 10% | 75% | 2 |
| TEXT | None | S1 or < | moderate |
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Sep 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 09-Sep 11 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 09-Sep 11 2024
Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11
00-03UT 2.67 2.67 5.00 (G1)
03-06UT 1.67 2.33 4.33
06-09UT 2.33 2.00 4.67 (G1)
09-12UT 2.00 2.00 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 4.00 2.67
15-18UT 2.33 5.33 (G1) 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67
21-00UT 2.67 6.00 (G2) 2.33
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on
10-11 Sep due to arrival of a CME that left the sun on 08 Sep.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 09-Sep 11 2024
Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11
S1 or greater 75% 50% 20%
Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reach the
S1 (Minor) threshold on 09 Sep. There is a chance for levels to continue
above the threshold on 10 Sep followed by a slight chance on 11 Sep.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 09 2024 0545 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 09-Sep 11 2024
Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 09-11 Sep.
Updated last 2024/09/09 15:45 UTC
-------------------
Product ID: P11W
Issued: 2024-09-09 07:49:53.767
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 574
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 09 0749 UTC
WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 09 0750 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 09 2000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
-------------------
Product ID: TIIA
Issued: 2024-09-09 05:54:24.367
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1355
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 09 0554 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 09 0510 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 668 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
-------------------
Product ID: A30F
Issued: 2024-09-08 07:53:48.633
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 242
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 08 0753 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 09: None (Below G1) Sep 10: G2 (Moderate) Sep 11: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
-------------------
Product ID: TIIA
Issued: 2024-09-08 01:29:21.717
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1354
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 08 0129 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Sep 08 0057 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 924 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
-------------------
Product ID: K04W
Issued: 2024-09-04 17:55:56.940
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4684
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 04 1755 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4683
Valid From: 2024 Sep 04 1055 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Sep 04 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
-------------------
Product ID: EF3A
Issued: 2024-09-04 15:18:34.967
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3398
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 04 1518 UTC
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 04 1455 UTC
Station: GOES16
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
-------------------
Product ID: MSIS
Issued: 2024-09-04 11:00:46.967
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 277
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 04 1100 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Sep 04 1030 UTC
Deviation: 40 nT
Station: BOU
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
-------------------
Product ID: K05W
Issued: 2024-09-04 10:43:56.543
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1921
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 04 1043 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 04 1043 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 04 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
-------------------
Product ID: K04A
Issued: 2024-09-04 10:43:08.637
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2469
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 04 1043 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Sep 04 1039 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
-------------------
Product ID: K04W
Issued: 2024-09-04 10:39:27.073
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4683
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 04 1039 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 04 1055 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 04 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
-------------------
Product ID: SGIW
Issued: 2024-09-04 10:17:22.920
Message Follows:
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 233
Issue Time: 2024 Sep 04 1017 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Sep 04 1030 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Sep 04 1100 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Sep 04 0940 UTC
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Current 2024 Sep 09 1205 UTC
Solar-terrestrial indices for 08 September follow.
Solar flux 228 and estimated planetary A-index 9.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 09 September was 2.00.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.
Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #24-37
2024 September 8 at 6:30 p.m. MDT (2024 September 9 0030 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For September 2-8
R1 (Minor) solar radiation storms were observed on 02-05 Sep and 07-08 Sep.
No other significant space weather was observed.
Outlook For September 9-15
R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) solar radiation storms are likely during the outlook period.
G1-G2 (Minor to Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10-11 Sep.
No other significant space weather is expected during the outlook period.
LATITUDE LONGITUDE ALTITUDE VELOCITY
° ° Miles MPH